It is no secret the Cowboys must improve their red zone performance in 2010. The offense was second in the NFL in yards gained, but just 14th in points scored, tallying the worst points-to-yards ratio of any playoff team.
There are a lot of the theories regarding how to succeed in the red zone. Some coaches run the ball more, knowing the “upside” of passing plays is limited. Others believe an accurate quarterback is the key to red zone prosperity, as the field becomes “squashed” and more ’spot-on’ throws are needed.
Personally, I believe the red zone is basically no different than any other part of the field. Sure, some teams perform much better in the red zone (compared to their play outside of it) and others worse, but that is to be expected with a sample size of 32 teams. Further, all of the stats show red zone performance is fluky due to small subsets of data. That is, there’s really no difference between the opponent’s 20-yard line to end zone as there is to, say, in between the 40s. Random data fluctuations are to be expected in such small sets of data.
Nonetheless, there are likely a few ways for the Cowboys to improve upon their red zone performance. The first? Get there more often! The Cowboys ran the second-most plays in the NFL inside their own 20-yard line last season, but were just 17th in red zone plays run. For an offense that has the potential to be explosive, that ranking must (and will) improve.
As the sample size of red zone plays increases, the team’s success will “regress to the norm,” i.e. they will get better. I feel fully confident in saying the Cowboys red zone performance will improve in 2010 even if they make zero changes to their offense. Statistics always win out.
One way to secure more red zone plays, of course, is to force more turnovers on defense. The success of the defense goes hand-in-hand with the offense, but that topic is probably best saved for a later post.
The second method by which the Cowboys can become more dominant in the red zone is to alter 1st down play-calling. I came across a very interesting study which analyzes the expected points of both runs and passes inside the red zone. The results? Running the ball on 1st down inside the opponent’s 10-yard line yields better returns than passing. From the 10 to 20, however, the field becomes elongated and the superiority of 1st down passing returns.
While football minds have labeled the area inside the 20-yard line as the ‘red zone,’ the “real” red zone–the one in which play-calling must change–is actually inside the 10-yard line. Until that point, an offense’s strategy shouldn’t really alter. The graph to the left exemplifies the expected points of running and passing on 1st down. Notice that running only becomes a superior 1st down strategy around the opponent’s 10-yard line.
So how did Jason Garrett and the Cowboys fair in their 2009 1st down red zone play-calling? To read more……Click Here
